Methodology
- Record the American price you bet and the American closing price for the same market.
- Convert both prices to implied probability through decimal odds before differencing.
- Compare the delta against the no-vig closing probability where possible.
- Average CLV across many bets, segmenting by market type, sport, and timing.
Why the calculator beats eyeballing American prices
American prices are not linear: going from +110 to +105 is a different swing than -110 to -115. Converting to implied probability before comparing is the only way to get a clean delta.
- +110 implies 47.62%; +105 implies 48.78% — only ~1.16 pts apart
- -110 implies 52.38%; -115 implies 53.49% — ~1.11 pts apart
- Cents movement and probability delta tell the same story but on different scales
- Long-run CLV averaging is more honest than reading individual tickets
Where the calculator can mislead
CLV is a process indicator, not a profit certificate. Promo boosts, alt lines with no real liquidity, and stale closings can all inflate or distort the signal.
- Treat boosted prices and unboosted prices as separate CLV pools
- Skip alt-line CLV for markets that never had real limits
- Flag voided bets so they do not silently inflate average CLV
- Track release-time CLV separately for picks you sold or shared
CLV calculator readout
Single-bet view from the closing-line calculator.
| Input / output | Example | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Bet odds | -120 | Implied 54.55% |
| Closing odds | -150 | Implied 60.00% |
| Implied delta | +5.45% | Beat close |
| Cents movement | 30 cents | Same direction, juice-adjusted |
A single positive-CLV bet means little; a hundred of them with no other change means a lot.
Responsible-use note
Analytics should support disciplined decision-making, not guaranteed outcomes. Bet only where legal, never risk money you cannot afford to lose, and use limits before volume increases.
FAQ
What does the CLV calculator measure?
It converts your bet price and the closing price to implied probabilities and reports the delta in percentage points and cents.
Does positive CLV guarantee profit?
No. CLV is a process signal. Variance, voids, and limit reductions can still make a positive-CLV sample unprofitable in the short run.
Should I include promo boosts in CLV averages?
Track promo boosts separately. Mixing boosted CLV with standard-priced CLV will overstate your edge.
