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Blog and learning
Articles
- Dynasty Fantasy as a Deck-Builder: Chemistry, Eras, BreedingDynasty fantasy card game: chemistry stacks, era cards, breeding, and a tier list across CMC, Bijan, Jefferson, and Mahomes.
- Translating Event Contracts to Spread/Moneyline PricesEvent contract spread translation: convert Kalshi YES/NO prices to American odds, point spreads, and implied probabilities for sportsbook comparison.
- Kalshi Sports Event Contracts vs Sportsbooks (2026)Kalshi sports betting in 2026: event contracts, YES/NO pricing, post-Third-Circuit status, and where they beat traditional books on vig.
- Kelly Criterion With a Loss Floor: A Safer Bankroll HeuristicKelly criterion loss floor staking: fractional Kelly with a drawdown cap, worked examples at +200, -120, -110, plus a daily kill-switch.
- How a Deterministic Live-Betting Sim Works (Replayable Seeds)How a deterministic live betting simulator works: seeded play-by-play, replayable rounds, and coin pools that settle byte-identically every replay.
- NCAA Women's Basketball Totals Model: A Browser RecipeBuild an NCAA WBB totals model in the browser using pace, eFG%, and conference splits — with UConn, Iowa, LSU, and USC worked examples.
- NGS Speed and Route Trees as WR Prop FeaturesUse Next Gen Stats max speed and BDB route trees as WR prop features. 21+ mph thresholds, route-mix encoding, target-shadow math, and prop-board impact.
- Open-Source Betting Model Release Notes (Cornerstone)Monthly release notes for our open-source TF.js betting models. Brier vs Vegas close, model cards, changelog, and remixable workshop links.
- Parimutuel Sports Betting Explained (Beyond Horse Racing)Parimutuel sports betting explained: how pool-based payout math works, why it differs from fixed-odds books, and where it appears beyond horse racing.
- Pick6 vs PrizePicks vs Underdog: A Cross-Book EV CalculatorA pickem expected value calculator for DraftKings Pick6, PrizePicks, and Underdog. Compare payouts leg-by-leg and route every entry to the cheapest book.
- Polymarket / Kalshi Arbitrage: Net-of-Fees TutorialPolymarket Kalshi arbitrage step by step: contract pairing, net-of-fees math, gas considerations, and the realistic windows that actually exist in 2026.
- Pre-Snap Formation Features: A Bettable WalkthroughEngineer pre-snap formation features that move WR yardage props. Receiver alignment, motion-at-snap, RB depth, and the Brier-lift math.
- PrizePicks Flex vs Power Plays: The Math Most Guides SkipPrizePicks flex math worked end-to-end: protected payouts, break-even hit rates, and when Flex actually beats Power Plays on EV.
- The Pyramid Auto-League: Promotion, Relegation, Pack RewardsPyramid fantasy league explained: 32-team tiers, weekly auto-sims, promotion/relegation math, pack rewards, onboarding flow.
- A Reproducible Backtest Checklist Bettors Actually FollowA 12-point checklist to tell a real edge from a hot streak: test past seasons, price after the juice, charge for the line you miss, prove it holds.
- A Significant Strikes Prop Model With Stylistic AdjustmentsBuild a UFC significant-strikes prop model in the browser. Per-15-minute rates, stylistic adjustments, takedown rate, and orthodox vs southpaw effects.
- Stacking Two Sports Models Without Writing PythonA click-driven tutorial for stacking two sports betting models in the browser. Meta-learner, calibration, Brier comparison, and ensemble weights.
- Build an NFL Spread Model in TensorFlow.js From ScratchA TensorFlow.js NFL betting model tutorial: define the architecture, prep the data, train in the browser, and evaluate against the closing spread.
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