Today's Brief

Updated Oct 30, 2026, 11:21 PM EDT · Research context only. No on-site wagering.

Top lean: KC at DEN — model probability is above the quoted price's break-even probability.

Estimated

Model leans, news and upcoming NFL games. Model probabilities are estimates.

Model Leans

These model estimates are above the quoted price's break-even probability. The difference is in percentage points, not game-score points or expected returns.

#1 LEAN
DEN moneyline vs KC

KC at DEN

Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM EST

Model − break-even: +17.03 percentage points -102
#2 LEAN
DEN +1.5 spread vs KC

KC at DEN

Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM EST

Model − break-even: +14.04 percentage points -115
#3 LEAN
BUF moneyline vs BAL

BAL at BUF

Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST

Model − break-even: +13.22 percentage points -170
#4 LEAN
BUF -3 spread vs BAL

BAL at BUF

Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST

Model − break-even: +10.25 percentage points -115
#5 LEAN
PHI +5.5 spread at WAS

PHI at WAS

Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 PM EST

Model − break-even: +8.97 percentage points -108

Traps to Avoid

KC moneyline at DEN
Not a qualifying lean
KC -1.5 spread at DEN
Not a qualifying lean
BAL moneyline at BUF
Not a qualifying lean

News Radar

Coming Up

ARI at DAL
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
ATL at TB
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
BAL at BUF
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
CLE at PIT
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
IND at JAX
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
LV at NYJ
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
MIN at DET
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST
TEN at CIN
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM EST