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Hedge Calculator
Compare possible payouts on an open bet. Enter your stake, odds, and a hedge price. The result uses those entered prices and assumes both bets settle as entered.
Hedge Calculator
Size a hedge on an open ticket. Compare the calculated result across outcomes at the prices you enter.
These calculations assume the entered prices hold and both bets settle as entered. Book limits, voids, and price changes can alter the result.
The hedge math: equalize payout across outcomes
The full-hedge formula is hedge_stake = (original_win_profit + original_stake) / hedge_decimal_odds. This stake returns the same total whether the original bet wins or the hedge wins. Partial
hedges (less than the equalize amount) keep some upside while shaving downside; over-hedges
flip the bet's directional exposure. The calculator shows the full-equalize amount; a partial
hedge leaves different calculated payouts across outcomes.
How hedging changes calculated expected value
A hedge adds another priced leg, so its calculated expected value includes that leg’s vig. The hedge side is priced with vig too (4.76% at -110 on both sides), so equalizing across both sides costs you the vig on the hedge leg. The exception: if the market has moved AWAY from your edge (your model now likes the OTHER side), the entered hedge can have a positive calculated expected value. The output describes the entered prices; it does not predict either result.
Worked example: futures hedge
$100 preseason bet on a +1000 futures ticket. The team is now in the final, opposing side priced at -150 (decimal 1.667). Original win_profit = $1000; total payout target on win = $1100. Hedge stake = $1100 / 1.667 = $660. If original wins: profit $1000 − $660 = $340. If hedge wins: profit $660 × 0.667 − $100 = $340. Calculated $340 either way, if both bets settle at the entered prices. Without the hedge, the original ticket nets $1000 on a win or loses $100. The calculator does not establish either outcome’s probability.
FAQ
What is hedging in sports betting and when should I hedge?
A hedge is a second bet on the opposite side of an open ticket. It changes the calculated payouts across outcomes. Those results depend on both bets settling at the entered prices; limits, voids, and price changes can alter them.
How do I compute the optimal hedge stake?
The formula is hedge_stake = (original_win_profit + original_stake) / hedge_decimal_odds. This solves for a stake that returns the same total no matter which side wins. For a $100 stake at +200 (win profit $200), hedged at -200 (decimal 1.50), the hedge stake is ($200 + $100) / 1.50 = $200. If the original wins you net $200 − $200 = $0; if the hedge wins you net $200 × 0.50 − $100 = $0. A full hedge equalizes the calculated payouts at the entered prices. A partial hedge leaves different payouts across outcomes.
Should I always hedge a future when offered the chance?
No. Hedging trades expected value for variance reduction. If your original bet has positive EV at the current price (your model still likes it), hedging locks in less money than just letting it ride does in expectation. The question is whether you can afford the variance: hedging a $100 stake on a +5000 future down to a $400 lock might be wise when you need the cash; the same hedge on a $5 stake is silly because the variance was always tolerable. Hedge when bankroll math says variance matters more than EV.
What is the difference between hedging and arbitrage?
Arbitrage compares prices across all outcomes at once. A hedge adds a second bet to an open position. Both calculations depend on the entered prices holding, every outcome being covered as assumed, and the bets settling under the same rules.
How does sportsbook juice affect a hedge?
Juice eats hedge value. A $100 bet at +200 with both sides perfectly priced (decimal 3.00 / 1.50) lets you fully equalize at zero EV cost. In reality, you'll find the hedge side priced at -210 or -220 (juiced 5-10% below fair). That extra juice changes the calculated equalized payout. Compare available hedge prices and verify both tickets before placing a wager.
Compare prices across outcomes; book limits, voids, and price changes can change the outcome.
Explore how the Kelly formula relates probability and price to a calculated stake.
Apply the same payout-equalize math to convert a free bet to cash.