Parlay EV Calculator

Compound probabilities, multiplied payouts, expected value. Independence assumed unless flagged.

Leg 1 true prob (%) American odds

Leg 2 true prob (%) American odds

Stake ($) Legs are correlated (flags warning — math assumes independence)

Parlay probability

30.25%

Payout multiplier

4.00x

Expected value

+$21.00

21.00% of stake • Win payout: $400.00

How parlay EV works

For independent legs: parlay probability = product of leg probabilities; payout multiplier = product of decimal odds. Expected value = parlay probability × win payout − stake. Most parlays are -EV by design because each leg carries vig.

By Anton Volkov — The Quant.