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Teaser Break-Even Calculator
Compute the per-leg hit rate required to break even on 2, 3, or 4-team NFL or NBA teasers at standard 6, 6.5, 7, and 10-point levels. Compare the threshold against your projected leg rates to see whether the teaser clears the math.
Teaser Break-Even Calculator
Estimate combined hit rate, fair price, and EV for a two-leg or three-leg teaser.
Teaser quality depends on accurate per-leg probabilities, sport rules, and push handling.
The teaser bet: buy points, pay through the odds
Teasers let you move each leg's spread (or total) in your favor by a fixed number of points in exchange for a worse combined payout. A 6-point 2-leg teaser turns two roughly 50/50 legs into roughly 75/25 legs — far easier per-leg hit rates, but the combined price drops from parlay-like to roughly -120. Every leg still must hit for the teaser to cash; a single missed leg loses the entire ticket.
Wong teaser theory and modern reality
Stanford Wong's analysis (in his book Sharp Sports Betting, 2001) found that some 6-point NFL teasers crossing both the 3 and 7 key numbers (favorites between -7.5 and -8.5, underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5) won more often than their price needed in the data he studied. Books have since repriced these teasers, so this is history, not a current result. Use the calculator above to see the break-even rate at the price you are offered.
Worked example: 2-team 6-point teaser at -120
Original legs: -7.5 favorite, -4 favorite. Adding 6 points gives -7.5 + 6 = -1.5, crossing -7 and -3 once each, and -4 + 6 = +2, crossing -3 only. The first leg crosses both NFL key numbers, 3 and 7; the second crosses only 3. Assume per-leg hit rates of 76% and 74% and independent legs. Combined probability: 0.76 × 0.74 = 56.24%. Combined payout at -120 (decimal 1.833): 0.5624 × 0.833 − (1 − 0.5624) × 1 = +3.1% EV (equivalently 0.5624 × 11/6 − 1 = 0.031067). The hit rates here are assumed for the example, not measured results.
FAQ
What is a teaser bet and how does it work?
A teaser is a multi-leg bet where you adjust the spread or total on each leg in your favor by a fixed number of points (typically 6, 6.5, 7, or 10 in the NFL) in exchange for a worse combined payout. A two-team 6-point NFL teaser pays roughly -120 (about 0.83 to 1), much lower than the +260 a straight 2-leg parlay would pay, but each leg now has wider coverage. Like parlays, every leg must hit for the teaser to cash; one missing leg loses the whole bet.
What are the standard teaser point levels (6 / 6.5 / 7 / 10)?
Most sportsbooks offer 6, 6.5, 7, and 10-point teasers in football. 6 and 6.5 points are the canonical levels because they cross the most important NFL key numbers (3 and 7) on the right legs. 7-point teasers add coverage on field-goal margins. 10-point "super teasers" pay more but rarely overcome the implied break-even on legs that already cross every meaningful number. NBA teasers usually offer 4, 4.5, 5 points but the underlying distribution is too smooth for any real edge.
What is a Wong teaser and why does it come up in teaser history?
Stanford Wong's analysis (in his book Sharp Sports Betting, 2001) found that some 6-point NFL teasers crossing both 3 and 7 (for example, teasing a -7.5 favorite to -1.5, or a +1.5 underdog to +7.5) won more often than their price needed in the data he studied. Books have since repriced these teasers, so this is history, not a current result.
How do I compute teaser break-even hit rate?
For an N-leg teaser at decimal odds D, the break-even per-leg hit rate is the Nth root of (1 / D). A 2-leg 6-point teaser at -120 (decimal 1.833) needs (1 / 1.833) ^ (1/2) = 73.85% per leg. A 3-leg teaser at +160 (decimal 2.6) needs (1 / 2.6) ^ (1/3) = 72.6% per leg. The calculator above does this automatically; the projected per-leg hit rate can be compared with that threshold across all legs.
How does the calculator evaluate a teaser price?
Do not count on it. Books raised teaser prices after Wong-style research became well known, which raises the break-even rate per leg. Prices differ by book and change over time, so check the price you are offered. Most teaser action is recreational and loses money over time. The calculator shows the break-even rate for any price you enter.
Same multi-leg math without buying points — compare straight parlay EV.
Compare totals for one game: over at the lower number and under at the higher number.
Use the entered estimates to calculate a stake fraction.