Variance Simulator

Variance Simulator

Run 2,000 seeded seasons from the inputs you choose. Compare a cold run, the median, and a heater.

? · what this block is

tool calculator

What
A calculator with your entries and the calculated results.
Why it is here
Compare the answer with the inputs that produced it.
Variance Simulator

Cold run · 5th percentile

-11.3%

Median

-0.1%

Heater · 95th percentile

+12.3%

4.7% of runs hit the simulator's loss threshold. Source: final outcomes from the same 2,000 seeded trials.

Simulated bankroll outcomes over timeThe blue line is the median outcome. The light and dark green bands show the 5th to 95th and 25th to 75th percentile outcomes across 2,000 seeded runs.
Blue: median. Dark green: middle 50%. Light green: middle 90% of simulated outcomes.

These simulations use the probability, price and stake you enter. Losses can occur even when those assumptions give a positive expected return. The results do not establish your actual win probability.

2,000 seeded seasons are simulated from the entered assumptions; percentile and bust-rate summaries come from those same trials.

These are simulated outcomes from your inputs, not a forecast or advice. Actual results may differ.