Trout Tout
Compare player-performance lift and explicit-pick accuracy by source. Scores are adjusted toward neutral for small samples. Confidence intervals describe the observed results, before adjustment.
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What the columns mean
- Lift
- The sample-adjusted difference in fantasy points from the sport-position baseline, weighted by the direction of the call. Positive values indicate calls aligned with player results; negative values indicate the opposite.
- Hit rate
- The share of graded explicit picks that won, excluding pushes. The headline rate is adjusted toward 50% for small samples; the confidence interval uses the observed rate.
- 95% CI
- The interval for the observed result, shown by the dot in each bar, before sample-size adjustment. It may not contain the adjusted headline score. A range crossing 0 for lift or 50% for hit rate does not establish a difference from that reference.
- n
- Sample size — observations contributing to the estimate. n < 10 is flagged as a small sample (faded CI bar).