Start with a recipe. Make it your own.

Ingredients

• NFL point spread
• Simple probability fit
• Probability reality check
• Season-by-season test

Method

Estimate the home-side cover chance, tune the probability scale, then retest one season at a time.

Checks

• The line was captured before kickoff.
• The result has enough graded games to judge.
• One season is not carrying the whole record.

Ingredients

• Game total
• Blended model signals
• Probability reality check
• Untouched final sample

Method

Blend several signals, tune the probability scale, and keep one final slice untouched until the recipe is settled.

Checks

• The closing total was captured before the game.
• The final sample stayed untouched during recipe changes.
• The result is not coming from one short stretch.

Ingredients

• Moneyline win chance
• Similar-games check
• Probability reality check
• Flat stake display

Method

Estimate win chance, compare it with similar past games, and keep the stake display flat while you judge the model.

Checks

• Every comparison used information available before the game.
• Similar games are genuinely comparable, not hand-picked after the result.
• Probability groups track actual wins over enough games.